The collective mood of Democratic insiders has darkened appreciably in recent weeks.
Democrats looking to save their slight majority in the Senate come down to defending a handful of states, with members that need to tread lightly when it comes to the president.
According to Politico:
Democrats’ path to saving their narrow Senate majority comes down to defending four states this fall. And in all of them, President Joe Biden is underwater in the polls.
Biden’s drag on swing-state incumbents is emerging as a pivotal factor in the midterm Senate elections, where the loss of just one Democratic-held seat in November could put Republicans in control.
Acutely aware of the need to get distance from the president, the four most endangered Democratic incumbents — Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan — are increasingly taking steps to highlight their independence from the president and underscore their differences
In a report by NYMAG:
From one perspective, Democrats have a positive Senate landscape for 2022. They are defending only 14 seats, compared with 20 for Republicans. None are in states Donald Trump carried in 2020, while Republicans are defending three seats in states carried by Joe Biden. Yet three Democratic seats are in states Biden carried by an eyelash (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada), which means, in the event of a Republican “wave” election, they could be extremely vulnerable. A lot of attention is being paid to Nevada, in part because Democrats are vulnerable to top-to-bottom ballot losses and in part because the state provides yet another example of the latest big freakout for the Donkey Party: growing problems with Latino voters.
Biden carried four states in his election against former President Donald Trump less than two years ago, but his poll numbers have dropped to dangerously low levels for a president who has yet to serve half a term. Biden’s lifting of Title 42, a Trump-era border restriction, is the most recent policy retaliation from the vulnerable Democrats. The Democrats are looking to distance themselves.
The vulnerable Democrats’ use of social media, has shied away from praising the president and his administration in favor of urging the White House to act. However, all have voted overwhelmingly in favor of the majority of Biden’s agenda ideas. Kelly and Hassan have voted 97.7 percent of the time on Biden-backed legislation, while Warnock and Cortez Masto has voted 95.5 percent of the time.
Martha McKenna, a Democratic ad maker who previously worked for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said, “In these four states, these are senators just doing the work, keeping their head down, getting things done for their states while the Republicans are obviously tearing each other apart in these primaries,”
“They are not people who go looking for conflict, they’re not grandstanders. They’re hard-working senators willing to say, ‘Yes, I agree with Biden on child tax credits or health care, but look, I’ve got an issue on this issue, or that issue.’”
Senate Majority PAC president J.B. Poersch said, “The path to a Senate majority in 2022 runs through a core set of highly competitive races in states where Democrats have been successful in the past.” He also noted that “this group of strong, battle-tested incumbents whose North Star is fighting for their constituents’ best interests.”
In contrast, the Republicans believe they have a good chance of winning the seats and winning the seat.
“Her going to the Texas border, standing in front of Donald Trump’s wall, and calling for more border infrastructure is a lot more than just concern for Title 42. It shows the serious issues that she has with voters,” Dave Carney, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire and is working for Republican Chuck Morse’s Senate campaign, told Politico.
“It’s not that I think she’s in trouble or Republicans think she’s in trouble, she knows she’s in trouble,” Carney added.
Sources: Conservativebrief, Politico, Patriotsforamerica