Recent FBI crime victimization surveys show a troubling upward trend in crime across the United States. According to the latest data, violent crime has risen by 10.4% and property crime has increased by 6.4% between 2019 and 2023. These figures reflect a combination of growing criminal activity and shifting reporting standards, providing a nuanced look into the current state of crime in America.
Each year, the FBI releases two key reports that shape the national conversation on crime. The first is a compilation of headline crime data for the previous calendar year, based on official reports from law enforcement agencies. The second is a crime victimization survey, which asks ordinary Americans whether they have been victims of crime, regardless of whether they reported the incidents to police.
Comparing these two data sets helps paint a clearer picture of the crime landscape, offering insights into underreported or overlooked issues. For example, discrepancies between the official crime data and victim reports suggest that theft and property crimes, in particular, are significantly underreported.
While theft has long been known to be underreported, recent data highlights a growing gap between the FBI’s official crime statistics and the victimization surveys. This divergence suggests that crime, particularly property crime, may be worsening more than the official figures indicate.
The growing trend of underreporting is partly fueled by perceptions that filing a report won’t make much difference. This is particularly true in densely populated areas where law enforcement resources are stretched thin. People may also be less inclined to report minor thefts or property damage, believing that law enforcement is more focused on violent crimes. However, this underreporting can distort public understanding of how pervasive property crime really is.
The shift in crime reporting methods has further complicated efforts to track crime trends. In 2016, the FBI set a deadline of January 1, 2021, for law enforcement agencies to transition from the Summary Reporting System (SRS), a paper-based method that recorded only the most serious crime per incident, to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), a computer-based system that can log up to 10 different crimes per incident.
The goal of this transition was to capture more detailed and accurate crime data. However, 40% of law enforcement agencies, including those in major states like California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida, missed the deadline. Even the two largest police departments in the U.S.—New York City and Los Angeles—failed to make the switch on time.
As a result, reported violent and property crime statistics dropped dramatically between 2020 and 2021, by 15.9% and 27.3% respectively. This decline, however, did not reflect a real decrease in crime. Instead, it was largely due to data collection issues. At the same time, victimization data revealed a different story: violent crime victimization rose by 0.9%, while property crime victimization fell by 3.3%.
The transition problems meant that reported crime rates, particularly for violent crime, were lower than they should have been. The ratio of reported violent crimes to victimizations dropped from 85.6% in 2020 to 71.4% in 2021. Similarly, the rate for property crime reporting fell from 51.6% to 38.8%, underscoring how incomplete crime data painted an inaccurately rosy picture of the crime landscape in 2021.
In 2022 and 2023, crime reporting improved significantly. By 2022, only 17% of law enforcement agencies had failed to submit at least three months of NIBRS data, and by 2023, over 16,000 agencies—covering 95.2% of the national population—were reporting. This improvement has brought violent crime reporting rates back in line with 2019 levels, but the gap in property crime reporting remains. In 2023, property crime reporting rates were still 14.4% below 2019 levels.
This gap suggests that Americans are either less inclined to report property crimes or less confident that doing so will lead to resolution. As a result, property crime statistics may still be underrepresenting the true scope of the issue.
While the improved data collection has helped clarify some trends, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic continues to distort crime data in many ways. Anomalous reporting patterns from that time still affect how we interpret current crime rates. Additionally, as law enforcement agencies continue to adjust to the new reporting standards, it may take several more years before crime data fully reflects the real state of affairs.
In the meantime, the increase in both violent and property crimes since 2019 highlights the need for continued focus on crime prevention and law enforcement support. It also underscores the importance of accurate and timely crime reporting to ensure that policymakers and the public can respond effectively to emerging trends.